Conditional probability · Teen patti
Which ace did they see?
You are dealt 3 cards from a well-shuffled standard 52-card deck. A friend looks at your hand and tells you truthfully: “You have the ace of spades.” (They would say this whenever the ace of spades is in your hand.) What is the probability that your hand holds at least two aces?
Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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