Conditional probability · Antique shop · difficulty 2 of 5
Three boxes, one gold coin
A cabinet holds one box with two gold coins, one box with two silver coins, and one box with one gold and one silver coin. You pick a box uniformly at random, then take one of its two coins at random without looking at the other. The coin you took is gold. What is the probability that the other coin in the same box is also gold?
Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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