Priors

Counting and complements · Sports

Best of three

In a playoff series, the stronger team wins any single game with probability 0.6, independently of the other games. The series is best of 3: the first team to 2 wins takes it. What is the probability that the stronger team wins the series?

Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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