Priors

Conditional probability · Playing cards · difficulty 2 of 5

At least one red card

You draw 2 cards at random, without replacement, from a well-shuffled standard 52-card deck (26 red, 26 black). A friend looks at them and tells you that at least one is red. What is the probability that both are red?

Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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