Games and stopping · Betting
A small edge, a big gap
You start with 5 chips. Each round you bet one chip on a game you win with probability 0.45: win and you gain a chip, lose and you lose one. You stop when you reach 10 chips or go broke. What is the probability you reach 10?
Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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