Priors

Counting and complements · Badminton

The unlucky second seed

A badminton tournament has 16 players in a single-elimination draw, with the draw made completely at random (no seeding). The better player always wins a match. What is the probability that the second-best player finishes as runner-up?

Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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