Priors

Games and stopping · Board games

Will you land on it?

In a board game, your token starts on square 0. You roll a fair six-sided die over and over, each time moving forward by the number rolled, and you keep going past any square. What is the probability that your token lands exactly on square 10 at some point?

Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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