Priors

Counting and complements · Dice

Never going down

You roll a fair 6-sided die 4 times. What is the probability that no roll is smaller than the roll before it? Repeats are allowed, so 2, 2, 5, 6 counts but 2, 5, 3, 6 doesn't.

Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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