Priors

Counting and complements · Poker

Exactly one pair

You are dealt 5 cards from a well-shuffled standard 52-card deck. What is the probability that your hand is exactly one pair: two cards of one rank and three cards of three other, different ranks?

Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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