Priors

Geometric probability · City roads

The smooth stretch outside your house

A 1,000-foot road has 3 potholes, each at an independent, uniformly random point along it. Your driveway is 500 feet from the start of the road. The potholes and the two ends of the road split it into 4 smooth stretches. What is the expected length, in feet, of the smooth stretch that contains your driveway?

Answer with an expected value. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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