Expectation · Stock market
All-time highs
Model a stock's closing prices over 30 trading days as independent draws from the same continuous distribution: no trend, no momentum. A day sets a record if it closes higher than every earlier day, and day 1 always counts. What is the expected number of record days?
Answer with an expected value. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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