Priors

Games and stopping · Startup hiring

Hire on the spot

You interview 10 candidates in random order and must decide on each one on the spot. Your rule: skip the first 3, then hire the first candidate better than everyone you've seen so far (if nobody is, you end up with the last one). What is the probability you hire the single best candidate?

Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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