Conditional probability · Travel · difficulty 3 of 5
Is it raining in Seattle?
You're flying to Seattle, where the chance of rain on any given day is 25%. You call three friends who live there and ask each, separately, whether it's raining. Each friend, independently of the others and of the weather, tells the truth with probability 2/3 and lies otherwise. All three say “Yes, it's raining.” What is the probability that it actually is raining?
Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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