Conditional probability · Magic shop
The two-headed coin
A magic shop's bag holds 4 fair coins and one coin with heads on both sides. You pull out a coin at random without looking at it, flip it 3 times, and get heads every time. What is the probability that the next flip is also heads?
Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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