Conditional probability · Chip factory · difficulty 3 of 5
Flagged twice
At a chip factory, 2% of chips are defective. An automated inspection flags 90% of defective chips and 5% of good chips. Each time the inspection is run on a chip, the result is independent of any earlier run, given whether the chip is defective. A chip is inspected twice and flagged both times. What is the probability that it is defective?
Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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