Bets and decisions · Exam strategy
To guess or not to guess
In a math competition, each multiple-choice question has 4 options and exactly one is correct. A right answer scores +4, a wrong answer scores −1, and a blank scores 0. On one question you can rule out 1 of the options for certain, and you guess uniformly among the rest. What is your expected score from guessing?
Answer with an expected value. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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