Bets and decisions · Sports betting · difficulty 1 of 5
The three-leg parlay
A sportsbook offers a $1 parlay on three games. You must pick the winner of all three, and you think each of your picks wins with probability 50%, independently of the others. If all three win, the parlay pays 6 to 1: you get your $1 back plus $6 profit. If any one of them loses, you lose your $1. What is your expected profit, in dollars, on the parlay?
Answer with an expected value. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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