Priors

Bets and decisions · Dice game · difficulty 1 of 5

Paid the square

You roll a fair 6-sided die, numbered 1 to 6, once. You're paid the square of the number rolled, in dollars: a 3 pays $9, a 4 pays $16. What is the fair price to play, in dollars, meaning the expected payout?

Answer with an expected value. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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