Priors

Bets and decisions · Poker

Chasing the flush

It's the last card in a hand of Texas Hold'em. The pot holds $100, and your opponent bets $50. You're certain they're ahead unless the river completes your flush, and 9 of the 46 unseen cards do that. If you call and hit, you win the whole pot; if you miss, you lose your call. Folding costs you nothing more. What is your expected profit, in dollars, from calling instead of folding?

Answer with an expected value. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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