Bets and decisions · Startup investing
A portfolio of moonshots
You invest $100,000 in each of 10 early-stage startups. Each one, independently, returns 20× with probability 5% and otherwise goes to zero. On average the portfolio returns 1× your money. What is the probability you end up with less money than you put in?
Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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