Bets and decisions · Electronics store
The one-claim warranty
With your new phone, the store offers a 12-month protection plan for $120. The plan pays for one repair only: the first fault in the year. Any later repair you pay for yourself. Each month, independently, the phone develops a fault with probability 3%, every repair costs $300, and a repaired phone can fault again in a later month. Compared with not buying the plan, what is your expected gain in dollars from buying it? A negative answer means the plan loses you money on average.
Answer with an expected value. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.
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