Priors

Bets and decisions · Investing

Too much of a good bet

You've found an even-money bet that wins 60% of the time. Every round you stake 50% of your current bankroll, so a win multiplies your money by 1.5 and a loss by 0.5. You play 20 rounds. Your expected wealth grows every round. What is the probability you finish with more money than you started with?

Answer with a probability. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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