Priors

Bets and decisions · Game show

What is a peek worth?

A sealed box holds one of the amounts $100, $200, …, $1,000, each equally likely. The host offers you a choice: keep the box, or take $550 in cash instead. You care only about expected money. Before you choose, the host offers to let you look inside the box. By how many dollars does that peek raise your expected winnings?

Answer with an expected value. First lock in a gut guess with an 80% range, then solve it properly, then watch a simulation settle on the truth.

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